Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Trading Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game

Of 225 developers who shipped a Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 494 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×422 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 494 games are announced against 139 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 494 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 225
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $3.4k → $599 → $1.8k → $1.1k → $599 → $450 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 225
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,298)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $264,873)
Developers, 2 yr 225
Released games 762
Announced 494
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 34%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 58,842 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 134 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 494 games are announced against 139 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Trading Card Game

70 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Immersive Sim + Trading Card Game Strong odds $30k 18 devs
  2. Sandbox + Trading Card Game Fair $1.8k 17 devs
  3. Trading Card Game + Inventory Management Fair $1.5k 21 devs
  4. Trading Card Game + Procedural Generation Poor odds $10k 10 devs
  5. Trading Card Game + Life Sim Poor odds $10k 18 devs
  6. Trading Card Game + Trading Poor odds $10k 16 devs
  7. Trading Card Game + Collectathon Poor odds $6.3k 26 devs
  8. Trading Card Game + Historical Poor odds $6.1k 15 devs
  9. Co-op + Trading Card Game Poor odds $4.9k 11 devs
  10. Trading Card Game + Roguelike Deckbuilder Poor odds $3.4k 24 devs
  11. Trading Card Game + Auto Battler Poor odds $3.4k 22 devs
  12. Online Co-Op + Trading Card Game Poor odds $3.1k 13 devs
  13. Trading Card Game + Economy Poor odds $2.4k 25 devs
  14. Trading Card Game + Resource Management Poor odds $2.4k 22 devs
  15. Trading Card Game + Crafting Poor odds $2.4k 10 devs
  16. Trading Card Game + Dungeon Crawler Poor odds $2.3k 10 devs
  17. PvP + Trading Card Game Poor odds $1.9k 47 devs
  18. Character Customization + Trading Card Game Poor odds $1.9k 12 devs
  19. Trading Card Game + Simulation Poor odds $1.8k 64 devs
  20. Trading Card Game + Management Poor odds $1.5k 38 devs
  21. Trading Card Game + Roguelike Poor odds $1.5k 70 devs
  22. Tactical + Trading Card Game Poor odds $1.4k 43 devs
  23. RPG + Trading Card Game Poor odds $1.2k 59 devs
  24. Trading Card Game + Strategy RPG Poor odds $1.2k 21 devs
  25. Trading Card Game + Puzzle Poor odds $809 20 devs
  26. Trading Card Game + Deckbuilding Poor odds $719 115 devs
  27. Trading Card Game + Choices Matter Poor odds $719 31 devs
  28. Trading Card Game + Creature Collector Poor odds $719 25 devs
  29. Trading Card Game + Incremental Poor odds $719 19 devs
  30. Trading Card Game + Building Poor odds $719 13 devs
  31. Trading Card Game + Roguelite Poor odds $599 62 devs
  32. Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $599 55 devs
  33. Trading Card Game + Adventure Poor odds $599 33 devs
  34. Real Time Tactics + Trading Card Game Poor odds $599 13 devs
  35. Trading Card Game + Card Battler Poor odds $598 131 devs
  36. Trading Card Game + Fantasy Poor odds $598 73 devs
  37. Trading Card Game + Combat Poor odds $598 18 devs
  38. Trading Card Game + Tactical RPG Poor odds $598 13 devs
  39. Trading Card Game + Medieval Poor odds $539 20 devs
  40. Trading Card Game + Card Game Poor odds $535 184 devs
  41. Trading Card Game + Gambling Poor odds $535 12 devs
  42. Trading Card Game + Strategy Poor odds $480 169 devs
  43. Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $450 82 devs
  44. Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics Poor odds $450 78 devs
  45. Trading Card Game + Board Game Poor odds $450 60 devs
  46. PvE + Trading Card Game Poor odds $300 39 devs
  47. Trading Card Game + Point & Click Poor odds $240 9 devs
  48. Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Dead $13k 7 devs
  49. Trading Card Game + Hidden Object Dead $7.1k 5 devs
  50. Trading Card Game + Mythology Dead $6.1k 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

TCG Card Shop Simulator 2026 · $28M Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions 2020 · $9.1M Kingdom Rush Vengeance - Tower Defense 2020 · $5.9M Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist : Link Evolution 2020 · $4.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Kingdom Rush Vengeance - Tower Defense older $19.99 9,906 93% 297k $5.9M (exactly $5,940,628) Ironhide Game Studio
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist : Link Evolution older $39.99 3,905 82% 117k $4.7M (exactly $4,684,828) Other Ocean Emeryville
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist older $19.99 4,452 83% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,669,864) Other Ocean Interactive
SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION older $59.99 1,404 82% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.)
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days older $69.99 1,186 76% 36k $2.5M (exactly $2,490,244) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Out of the Park Baseball 27 $49.99 475 82% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) Out of the Park Developments
Yu-Gi-Oh! EARLY DAYS COLLECTION $49.99 444 76% 13k $666k (exactly $665,867) Digital Eclipse
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
KOTAMON: My Sis Found A Super-Rare Card In Her Cereal Box, So I Became A Garbage Man To Find The Entire Collection And Earn $1,000,000 $6.99 2,489 81% 75k $522k (exactly $521,943) KotaMota Games
My Wife Threw Out My Card Collection (So I Bought a Dump to Find Them All) ⭐ $7.95 1,601 65% 48k $382k (exactly $381,838) Polnoch
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.