Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space game?

Space

Of 2,018 developers who shipped a Space game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,226 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×339 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 3,226 games are announced against 1,225 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 3,226 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,018
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $1.1k → $719 → $719 → $599 → $861 → $539 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,018
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 5% $213k (exactly $212,893)
Developers, 2 yr 2,018
Released games 6,767
Announced 3,226
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 263,531 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 975 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,226 games are announced against 1,225 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Space

162 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Turn-Based Strategy + Space Fair $1.5k 107 devs
  2. Creature Collector + Space Fair $1.5k 30 devs
  3. Incremental + Space Fair $1.2k 140 devs
  4. Board Game + Space Fair $1.2k 28 devs
  5. Idler + Space Fair $1.0k 134 devs
  6. Auto Battler + Space Fair $1.0k 44 devs
  7. Tabletop + Space Fair $898 29 devs
  8. Time Attack + Space Fair $657 11 devs
  9. Collectathon + Space Fair $599 62 devs
  10. Time Management + Space Fair $597 69 devs
  11. Quick-Time Events + Space Fair $597 16 devs
  12. Boomer Shooter + Space Fair $539 39 devs
  13. Sports + Space Fair $538 35 devs
  14. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Space Long shot $299 15 devs
  15. Real-Time with Pause + Space Poor odds $43k 9 devs
  16. Open World Survival Craft + Space Poor odds $32k 26 devs
  17. CRPG + Space Poor odds $22k 11 devs
  18. Programming + Space Poor odds $21k 10 devs
  19. Dating Sim + Space Poor odds $15k 26 devs
  20. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Space Poor odds $11k 18 devs
  21. Political Sim + Space Poor odds $9.6k 14 devs
  22. Diplomacy + Space Poor odds $9.0k 14 devs
  23. Turn-Based + Space Poor odds $7.8k 19 devs
  24. 4X + Space Poor odds $6.3k 36 devs
  25. Online Co-Op + Space Poor odds $5.4k 85 devs
  26. Metroidvania + Space Poor odds $4.9k 30 devs
  27. Base Building + Space Poor odds $4.7k 178 devs
  28. Colony Sim + Space Poor odds $4.6k 80 devs
  29. Building + Space Poor odds $4.2k 162 devs
  30. Mining + Space Poor odds $4.1k 89 devs
  31. Sandbox + Space Poor odds $3.8k 165 devs
  32. Life Sim + Space Poor odds $3.6k 35 devs
  33. Open World + Space Poor odds $3.3k 162 devs
  34. Co-op + Space Poor odds $3.1k 129 devs
  35. Loot + Space Poor odds $3.1k 46 devs
  36. Tactical RPG + Space Poor odds $3.1k 24 devs
  37. Economy + Space Poor odds $3.0k 112 devs
  38. Trading + Space Poor odds $3.0k 32 devs
  39. City Builder + Space Poor odds $2.9k 50 devs
  40. Destruction + Space Poor odds $2.7k 56 devs
  41. FPS + Space Poor odds $2.5k 114 devs
  42. Resource Management + Space Poor odds $2.4k 240 devs
  43. Crafting + Space Poor odds $2.4k 124 devs
  44. Automation + Space Poor odds $2.4k 100 devs
  45. Class-Based + Space Poor odds $2.4k 18 devs
  46. Grand Strategy + Space Poor odds $2.2k 37 devs
  47. Co-op Campaign + Space Poor odds $2.2k 20 devs
  48. Turn-Based Combat + Space Poor odds $2.2k 68 devs
  49. Management + Space Poor odds $1.8k 206 devs
  50. Investigation + Space Poor odds $1.8k 32 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Halo: The Master Chief Collection 2019 · $287M Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Starfield older $49.99 115,202 58% 3.5M $173M (exactly $172,768,439) Bethesda Game Studios
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ older $69.99 79,990 71% 2.4M $168M (exactly $167,955,003) Respawn
Kerbal Space Program older $39.99 120,656 95% 3.6M $145M (exactly $144,751,003) Squad
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Halo: Campaign Evolved $49.99 12,512 61% 375k $19M (exactly $18,764,246) Halo Studios
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
The Outer Worlds 2 $69.99 8,450 73% 254k $18M (exactly $17,742,465) Obsidian Entertainment
Subverse $39.99 13,781 66% 413k $17M (exactly $16,533,066) Studio FOW Interactive
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Mouthwashing $12.99 34,353 95% 1.0M $13M (exactly $13,387,364) Wrong Organ

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.