Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsSilent Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Silent-Protagonist game?

Silent Protagonist

Of 21 developers who shipped a Silent-Protagonist game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×4415 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 35 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 35 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Silent Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $657 → $5.4k → $8.4k → $599 → $10k → $3.5k → $1.2k (still earning) → $358 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Silent Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,414)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,097,201)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 151
Announced 35
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Silent Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 8,071 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Silent Protagonist

0 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Silent Protagonist has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN older $59.99 46,235 87% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,209,130) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Half-Life 2 older $9.99 202,782 97% 6.1M $61M (exactly $60,773,765) Valve
Half-Life older $9.99 117,320 96% 3.5M $35M (exactly $35,160,804) Valve
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
Thief Simulator older $19.99 37,377 88% 1.1M $22M (exactly $22,414,987) Noble Muffins
Dead Space (2008) older $19.99 22,890 92% 687k $14M (exactly $13,727,133) EA Redwood Shores
Grand Theft Auto III – The Definitive Edition older $59.99 7,353 66% 221k $13M (exactly $13,233,194) Rockstar Games
The Forgotten City older $24.99 11,159 96% 335k $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) Modern Storyteller
Five Nights at Freddy's older $4.99 53,607 94% 1.6M $8.0M (exactly $8,024,968) Scott Cawthon
CHRONO TRIGGER® older $14.99 12,149 88% 364k $5.5M (exactly $5,463,405) Square Enix
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
A Quiet Place: The Road Ahead $29.99 2,331 74% 70k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,201) Stormind Games
Eclipsium $12.99 3,306 91% 99k $1.3M (exactly $1,288,348) Housefire
Synthesis of Corruption $8.99 50 84% 1.5k $13k (exactly $13,485) VidyGames
Garbage Packer $6.99 56 82% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,743) Trash Games Studios
Escape from Mutation Station $3.99 87 96% 2.6k $10k (exactly $10,414) Jay Marksman
The Castle of Dr. Hoot $4.99 60 80% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) BitWizard
Bloom Thrice $9.99 25 96% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) NEO*PUN
The Dark Delivers $8.99 13 100% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) JaB Arcade
Faunamorph $9.99 5 40% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Marangon Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.