Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsShort

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Short game?

Short

Of 592 developers who shipped a Short game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 569 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×11 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is flat on the market; 569 games are announced against 377 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 569 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Short
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 592
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $2.2k → $1.3k → $1.0k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Short: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 592
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,336)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,804)
Top 5% $147k (exactly $147,153)
Developers, 2 yr 592
Released games 2,913
Announced 569
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Short
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 125,341 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.8k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 356 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 569 games are announced against 377 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Short

0 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Short has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition $59.99 70,073 78% 2.1M $126M (exactly $126,110,378) Asobo Studio
Firewatch older $19.99 93,690 90% 2.8M $56M (exactly $56,185,893) Campo Santo
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Little Nightmares older $19.99 52,184 94% 1.6M $31M (exactly $31,294,745) Tarsier Studios
What Remains of Edith Finch older $19.99 47,036 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,207,489) Giant Sparrow
Bright Memory: Infinite older $19.99 36,229 91% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,726,531) FYQD-Studio
To the Moon older $9.99 69,549 95% 2.1M $21M (exactly $20,843,835) Freebird Games
SUPERHOT older $24.99 27,765 91% 833k $21M (exactly $20,815,420) SUPERHOT Team
The Stanley Parable older $14.99 40,292 92% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,119,312) Galactic Cafe
Transistor older $19.99 27,993 93% 840k $17M (exactly $16,787,402) Supergiant Games
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Leaf it Alone $5.99 6,244 95% 187k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,047) Eternity
Spilled! $5.99 4,905 93% 147k $881k (exactly $881,428) Lente
DEAD LETTER DEPT. $14.99 1,777 95% 53k $799k (exactly $799,117) Mike Monroe, Belief Engine
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob
Duck Detective: The Ghost of Glamping $9.99 2,571 96% 77k $771k (exactly $770,529) Happy Broccoli Games
The Dark Queen of Mortholme $4.99 4,075 83% 122k $610k (exactly $610,028) Mosu
Undusted: Letters from the Past $9.99 1,736 96% 52k $520k (exactly $520,279) 5minlab Corp.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.