Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science game?

Science

Of 404 developers who shipped a Science game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 640 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $830, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×917 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 640 games are announced against 248 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 640 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 404
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.4k → $1.8k → $899 → $1.0k → $1.4k → $610 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 404
Bottom 30% $209 (exactly $209)
Median $832 (exactly $832)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,807)
Top 5% $435k (exactly $435,464)
Developers, 2 yr 404
Released games 1,309
Announced 640
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 146,011 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $830, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 200 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 640 games are announced against 248 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Science

87 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Economy + Science Fair $5.9k 39 devs
  2. Logic + Science Fair $1.2k 88 devs
  3. Idler + Science Fair $719 30 devs
  4. Point & Click + Science Fair $418 40 devs
  5. Co-op + Science Poor odds $53k 10 devs
  6. Base Building + Science Poor odds $52k 36 devs
  7. City Builder + Science Poor odds $40k 11 devs
  8. Colony Sim + Science Poor odds $27k 21 devs
  9. Building + Science Poor odds $22k 58 devs
  10. Mining + Science Poor odds $19k 18 devs
  11. Open World + Science Poor odds $14k 36 devs
  12. Life Sim + Science Poor odds $11k 28 devs
  13. Sandbox + Science Poor odds $10k 87 devs
  14. Crafting + Science Poor odds $10k 47 devs
  15. Automation + Science Poor odds $10k 41 devs
  16. Programming + Science Poor odds $9.4k 25 devs
  17. Management + Science Poor odds $8.8k 68 devs
  18. Survival + Science Poor odds $7.6k 35 devs
  19. Resource Management + Science Poor odds $6.0k 55 devs
  20. Investigation + Science Poor odds $5.9k 21 devs
  21. Procedural Generation + Science Poor odds $5.8k 37 devs
  22. Character Customization + Science Poor odds $4.7k 18 devs
  23. Collectathon + Science Poor odds $4.6k 21 devs
  24. Creature Collector + Science Poor odds $4.4k 19 devs
  25. Visual Novel + Science Poor odds $3.8k 22 devs
  26. Simulation + Science Poor odds $3.6k 178 devs
  27. Choose Your Own Adventure + Science Poor odds $2.9k 22 devs
  28. Immersive Sim + Science Poor odds $2.7k 56 devs
  29. Destruction + Science Poor odds $2.6k 16 devs
  30. Exploration + Science Poor odds $2.1k 114 devs
  31. Physics + Science Poor odds $2.1k 95 devs
  32. Adventure + Science Poor odds $1.9k 125 devs
  33. FPS + Science Poor odds $1.8k 23 devs
  34. Time Management + Science Poor odds $1.8k 19 devs
  35. RPG + Science Poor odds $1.6k 33 devs
  36. Survival Horror + Science Poor odds $1.5k 12 devs
  37. Stealth + Science Poor odds $1.5k 10 devs
  38. Choices Matter + Science Poor odds $1.4k 41 devs
  39. God Game + Science Poor odds $1.4k 22 devs
  40. Level Editor + Science Poor odds $1.3k 13 devs
  41. Space Sim + Science Poor odds $1.2k 44 devs
  42. Strategy + Science Poor odds $1.0k 121 devs
  43. Walking Simulator + Science Poor odds $1.0k 16 devs
  44. Combat + Science Poor odds $900 32 devs
  45. Interactive Fiction + Science Poor odds $898 22 devs
  46. PvE + Science Poor odds $897 35 devs
  47. Multiple Endings + Science Poor odds $750 25 devs
  48. Puzzle + Science Poor odds $748 120 devs
  49. Platformer + Science Poor odds $719 37 devs
  50. RTS + Science Poor odds $719 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M Portal 2 2011 · $117M The Outlast Trials 2024 · $109M ICARUS 2021 · $59M Portal 2007 · $52M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kerbal Space Program older $39.99 120,656 95% 3.6M $145M (exactly $144,751,003) Squad
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
The Outlast Trials older $39.99 90,997 92% 2.7M $109M (exactly $109,169,101) Red Barrels
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Kerbal Space Program 2 · EA older $49.99 27,930 26% 838k $42M (exactly $41,886,621) Intercept Games
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
Forever Skies $29.99 8,138 78% 244k $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) Far From Home
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
Mina the Hollower $19.99 7,562 88% 227k $4.5M (exactly $4,534,931) Yacht Club Games
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.