Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsPsychedelic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychedelic game?

Psychedelic

Of 755 developers who shipped a Psychedelic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,225 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×368 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 1,225 games are announced against 399 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 1,225 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Psychedelic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 755
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.6k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $1.4k → $1.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Psychedelic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 755
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Top 25% $8.6k (exactly $8,635)
Top 5% $175k (exactly $174,725)
Developers, 2 yr 755
Released games 2,549
Announced 1,225
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Psychedelic
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 65,098 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 471 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,225 games are announced against 399 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Psychedelic

0 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Psychedelic has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
Hotline Miami older $9.99 109,610 96% 3.3M $33M (exactly $32,850,117) Dennaton Games
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD older $15.99 54,053 94% 1.6M $26M (exactly $25,929,224) WSS playground, xemono
Psychonauts 2 older $59.99 12,333 95% 370k $22M (exactly $22,195,700) Double Fine Productions
Superliminal older $19.99 28,428 94% 853k $17M (exactly $17,048,272) Pillow Castle
A Dance of Fire and Ice older $5.99 78,688 94% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,140,234) 7th Beat Games
Cruelty Squad older $19.99 23,209 96% 696k $14M (exactly $13,918,437) Consumer Softproducts
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
No, I'm not a Human $14.99 27,222 93% 817k $12M (exactly $12,241,733) Trioskaz
Tetris® Effect: Connected older $39.99 8,429 94% 253k $10M (exactly $10,112,271) Monstars Inc., Resonair, Stage Games
KARMA: The Dark World $24.99 3,963 90% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,971,061) POLLARD STUDIO LLC
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
Skate Story $19.99 2,733 96% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,638,980) by Sam Eng
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks
MOLE $12.99 3,534 97% 106k $1.4M (exactly $1,377,200) Off Black Creations
Everhood 2 $19.99 2,207 74% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,538) Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca
Psychopomp GOLD $8.99 4,884 97% 147k $1.3M (exactly $1,317,215) Fading Club
Eclipsium $12.99 3,306 91% 99k $1.3M (exactly $1,288,348) Housefire

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.