Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature game?

Nature

Of 1,920 developers who shipped a Nature game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,313 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×697 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 3,313 games are announced against 1,132 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 3,313 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,920
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.5k → $899 → $958 → $899 → $1.0k → $1.0k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,920
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,988)
Top 5% $331k (exactly $331,116)
Developers, 2 yr 1,920
Released games 5,320
Announced 3,313
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 261,546 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 1,050 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,313 games are announced against 1,132 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Nature

151 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Job Simulator + Nature Strong odds $38k 21 devs
  2. Automation + Nature Fair $2.5k 98 devs
  3. Submarine + Nature Fair $2.4k 15 devs
  4. Mining + Nature Fair $2.4k 42 devs
  5. Minigames + Nature Fair $2.1k 15 devs
  6. Idler + Nature Fair $1.6k 242 devs
  7. Word Game + Nature Fair $1.0k 12 devs
  8. Board Game + Nature Fair $599 44 devs
  9. Bullet Hell + Nature Fair $358 55 devs
  10. Open World Survival Craft + Nature Poor odds $46k 19 devs
  11. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Nature Poor odds $37k 10 devs
  12. Shop Keeper + Nature Poor odds $31k 32 devs
  13. Transportation + Nature Poor odds $8.6k 12 devs
  14. Base Building + Nature Poor odds $5.8k 123 devs
  15. Life Sim + Nature Poor odds $5.1k 206 devs
  16. Dating Sim + Nature Poor odds $4.8k 31 devs
  17. Co-op + Nature Poor odds $4.8k 110 devs
  18. Colony Sim + Nature Poor odds $4.6k 61 devs
  19. Economy + Nature Poor odds $4.5k 131 devs
  20. Driving + Nature Poor odds $4.3k 54 devs
  21. Level Editor + Nature Poor odds $3.9k 30 devs
  22. JRPG + Nature Poor odds $3.9k 18 devs
  23. Desktop Companion + Nature Poor odds $3.7k 46 devs
  24. Cooking + Nature Poor odds $3.5k 56 devs
  25. Party-Based RPG + Nature Poor odds $3.4k 15 devs
  26. Management + Nature Poor odds $3.3k 255 devs
  27. Building + Nature Poor odds $3.1k 268 devs
  28. Trading + Nature Poor odds $3.1k 27 devs
  29. Automobile Sim + Nature Poor odds $2.9k 25 devs
  30. Sandbox + Nature Poor odds $2.7k 314 devs
  31. Character Customization + Nature Poor odds $2.7k 176 devs
  32. Online Co-Op + Nature Poor odds $2.7k 95 devs
  33. Resource Management + Nature Poor odds $2.5k 247 devs
  34. Immersive Sim + Nature Poor odds $2.4k 224 devs
  35. Farming Sim + Nature Poor odds $2.4k 178 devs
  36. City Builder + Nature Poor odds $2.3k 88 devs
  37. Crafting + Nature Poor odds $2.1k 207 devs
  38. Creature Collector + Nature Poor odds $2.1k 167 devs
  39. Agriculture + Nature Poor odds $2.1k 117 devs
  40. Simulation + Nature Poor odds $1.9k 725 devs
  41. Sports + Nature Poor odds $1.8k 62 devs
  42. Fishing + Nature Poor odds $1.8k 120 devs
  43. Procedural Generation + Nature Poor odds $1.8k 120 devs
  44. Archery + Nature Poor odds $1.8k 11 devs
  45. Open World + Nature Poor odds $1.7k 294 devs
  46. Perma Death + Nature Poor odds $1.7k 35 devs
  47. Class-Based + Nature Poor odds $1.6k 10 devs
  48. Inventory Management + Nature Poor odds $1.6k 74 devs
  49. Sailing + Nature Poor odds $1.6k 22 devs
  50. Survival Horror + Nature Poor odds $1.6k 53 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Far Cry® 5 2018 · $311M Planet Zoo 2019 · $110M theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 2017 · $102M MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M ICARUS 2021 · $59M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
Planet Zoo older $44.99 81,191 90% 2.4M $110M (exactly $109,583,493) Frontier Developments
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
How to Fish $7.99 57,661 95% 1.7M $14M (exactly $13,821,342) Dazed Games
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Tiny Glade $14.99 22,642 97% 679k $10M (exactly $10,182,107) Pounce Light

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.