Should I ship a Linear game?
Linear
Of 3,961 developers who shipped a Linear game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,181 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $59k, ×125 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 5,181 games are announced against 2,275 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $539 (exactly $539) |
| Top 25% | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) |
| Top 5% | $59k (exactly $59,282) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 3,961 |
| Released games | 12,226 |
| Announced | 5,181 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Linear
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 76,847 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 2,511 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,181 games are announced against 2,275 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
All pairs with Linear
No pair with Linear has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
BioShock Infinite 2013 · $99M 
The Callisto Protocol™ 2022 · $63M 
The First Berserker: Khazan 2025 · $38M 
Max Payne 3 2012 · $33M 
Mafia: The Old Country 2025 · $31M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | BioShock Infinite | older | $29.99 | 109,718 93% | 3.3M | $99M (exactly $98,713,285) | Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux)) |
| | The Callisto Protocol™ | older | $59.99 | 35,135 66% | 1.1M | $63M (exactly $63,232,460) | Striking Distance Studios |
| | The First Berserker: Khazan | $59.99 | 21,049 85% | 631k | $38M (exactly $37,881,885) | Neople | |
| | Max Payne 3 | older | $19.99 | 55,150 86% | 1.7M | $33M (exactly $33,073,455) | Rockstar Studios |
| | Mafia: The Old Country | $49.99 | 20,909 71% | 627k | $31M (exactly $31,357,227) | Hangar 13 | |
 | Hitman: Absolution™ | older | $19.99 | 49,637 93% | 1.5M | $30M (exactly $29,767,309) | Io-Interactive A/S |
 | Call of Duty®: Black Ops | older | $39.99 | 22,244 91% | 667k | $27M (exactly $26,686,127) | Treyarch |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 2 (2009) | older | $19.99 | 35,784 93% | 1.1M | $21M (exactly $21,459,665) | Infinity Ward |
 | To the Moon | older | $9.99 | 69,549 95% | 2.1M | $21M (exactly $20,843,835) | Freebird Games |
 | SANABI | older | $14.99 | 41,700 97% | 1.3M | $19M (exactly $18,752,490) | WONDER POTION |
 | SONIC X SHADOW GENERATIONS | $49.99 | 12,178 96% | 365k | $18M (exactly $18,263,347) | Sonic Team | |
 | MechWarrior 5: Clans | $29.99 | 5,565 74% | 167k | $5.0M (exactly $5,006,830) | Piranha Games Inc. | |
 | My Little Puppy | $24.99 | 4,435 97% | 133k | $3.3M (exactly $3,324,920) | Dreamotion Inc. | |
 | Firefighting Simulator: Ignite | $54.99 | 1,995 80% | 60k | $3.3M (exactly $3,291,152) | weltenbauer. Software Entwicklung GmbH | |
 | MindsEye | $34.99 | 2,855 48% | 86k | $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) | Build A Rocket Boy | |
 | Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream | $39.99 | 2,451 95% | 74k | $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) | River End Games | |
 | Lost Soul Aside™ | $59.99 | 1,307 59% | 39k | $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208) | Ultizero Games | |
 | Crisol: Theater of Idols | $17.99 | 4,103 85% | 123k | $2.2M (exactly $2,214,389) | Vermila Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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