Do I ship it?

GamesMechanicsHockey

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hockey game?

Hockey

Of 30 developers who shipped a Hockey game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $34k, ×54 the market median. Revenue is up 420% on the market; 47 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 420% on the market, 47 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hockey
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $598 → $1.1k → $30 → $5.9k → $958 (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hockey: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $653 (exactly $653)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,747)
Top 5% $34k (exactly $34,183)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 115
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 420% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hockey
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hockey
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 644 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $660, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $34k.

3 in 10 developers made under $660. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Hockey

7 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Hockey + Local Multiplayer Strong odds $3.0k 11 devs
  2. Hockey + Simulation Poor odds $6.7k 9 devs
  3. PvP + Hockey Poor odds $3.0k 11 devs
  4. Hockey + Sports Poor odds $1.6k 28 devs
  5. Hockey + Action Poor odds $958 13 devs
  6. Hockey + Physics Poor odds $958 9 devs
  7. Hockey + Arcade Poor odds $899 17 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tape to Tape · EA older $19.99 3,464 92% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,077,361) Excellent Rectangle
Eastside Hockey Manager older $19.99 1,173 86% 35k $703k (exactly $703,448) Sports Interactive
Super Blood Hockey older $14.99 902 91% 27k $406k (exactly $405,629) Loren Lemcke
Franchise Hockey Manager 6 older $19.99 307 78% 9.2k $184k (exactly $184,108) Out of the Park Developments, Minos Gam… (Out of the Park Developments, Minos Games)
Nancy Drew®: Warnings at Waverly Academy older $14.99 335 90% 10k $151k (exactly $150,650) HeR Interactive
Franchise Hockey Manager 7 older $19.99 241 77% 7.2k $145k (exactly $144,528) Out of the Park Developments, Minos Gam… (Out of the Park Developments, Minos Games)
Franchise Hockey Manager 9 older $19.99 220 83% 6.6k $132k (exactly $131,934) Out of the Park Developments, game54 So… (Out of the Park Developments, game54 Software)
Franchise Hockey Manager 10 older $19.99 200 81% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) Out of the Park Developments, game54 So… (Out of the Park Developments, game54 Software)
Franchise Hockey Manager 8 older $19.99 192 81% 5.8k $115k (exactly $115,142) Out of the Park Developments, Minos Gam… (Out of the Park Developments, Minos Games)
Franchise Hockey Manager 11 $19.99 148 70% 4.4k $89k (exactly $88,756) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Franchise Hockey Manager 12 $19.99 132 78% 4.0k $79k (exactly $79,160) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Shoresy: Legends of the North $19.99 57 78% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Treewood Games
Hockey Legacy Manager 26 $9.99 94 91% 2.8k $28k (exactly $28,172) Hockey Legacy Manager
Floorball League 2010 $9.99 90 90% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) Prodigium Game Studios
Lacrosse 26 $34.99 17 88% 510 $18k (exactly $17,845) Crosse Studios
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Wild Ice $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Journey Bound Games
Hockey Legacy Manager 27 $11.99 23 95% 690 $8.3k (exactly $8,273) Hockey Legacy Manager
Hockey Club · EA $24.99 9 66% 270 $6.7k (exactly $6,747) Boogerman Games, LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.