Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Fighting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fighting game?

Fighting

Of 224 developers who shipped a Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 407 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×2488 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 407 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 407 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 224
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $3.3k → $1.9k → $10k → $3.0k → $3.3k → $2.5k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 224
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,738)
Top 5% $3.7M (exactly $3,727,457)
Developers, 2 yr 224
Released games 1,360
Announced 407
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 144,351 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 125 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 407 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Fighting

68 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Fighting + Sandbox Strong odds $76k 11 devs
  2. Fighting + Score Attack Long shot $599 13 devs
  3. Open World + Fighting Poor odds $117k 12 devs
  4. Fighting + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $56k 11 devs
  5. Fighting + Souls-like Poor odds $24k 8 devs
  6. Fighting + Swordplay Poor odds $13k 13 devs
  7. Fighting + Historical Poor odds $13k 9 devs
  8. Fighting + Cyberpunk Poor odds $9.6k 5 devs
  9. Fighting + Local Co-Op Poor odds $9.4k 41 devs
  10. Co-op + Fighting Poor odds $9.0k 45 devs
  11. Fighting + Hack and Slash Poor odds $8.7k 29 devs
  12. Fighting + Adventure Poor odds $7.2k 44 devs
  13. Fighting + Spectacle fighter Poor odds $7.2k 25 devs
  14. Online Co-Op + Fighting Poor odds $6.7k 33 devs
  15. Fighting + Sci-fi Poor odds $6.3k 16 devs
  16. Fighting + Character Customization Poor odds $5.9k 23 devs
  17. Fighting + Ninja Poor odds $5.9k 15 devs
  18. 3D Fighter + Fighting Poor odds $5.0k 55 devs
  19. Fighting + Beat 'em up Poor odds $5.0k 55 devs
  20. Fighting + Simulation Poor odds $4.5k 28 devs
  21. Fighting + 3D Platformer Poor odds $4.2k 9 devs
  22. Fighting + Boxing Poor odds $4.2k 16 devs
  23. Fighting + Sports Poor odds $4.2k 24 devs
  24. Fighting + Martial Arts Poor odds $3.6k 37 devs
  25. Fighting + Medieval Poor odds $3.6k 17 devs
  26. Fighting + RPG Poor odds $3.3k 21 devs
  27. Fighting + Local Multiplayer Poor odds $3.1k 88 devs
  28. Fighting + Roguelite Poor odds $3.1k 22 devs
  29. Fighting + Action-Adventure Poor odds $3.0k 32 devs
  30. Fighting + Female Protagonist Poor odds $3.0k 17 devs
  31. Action RPG + Fighting Poor odds $3.0k 13 devs
  32. Character Action Game + Fighting Poor odds $3.0k 9 devs
  33. Fighting + Physics Poor odds $2.9k 44 devs
  34. Fighting + Arcade Poor odds $2.8k 94 devs
  35. Fighting + Action Poor odds $2.7k 209 devs
  36. Fighting + Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 33 devs
  37. Fighting + Magic Poor odds $2.7k 18 devs
  38. Fighting + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $2.7k 8 devs
  39. Fighting + Combat Poor odds $2.5k 115 devs
  40. Fighting + 2D Fighter Poor odds $2.3k 85 devs
  41. Fighting + 2D Platformer Poor odds $2.2k 36 devs
  42. Fighting + Platformer Poor odds $2.2k 31 devs
  43. PvP + Fighting Poor odds $2.2k 112 devs
  44. Fighting + Action Roguelike Poor odds $2.1k 19 devs
  45. Fighting + Roguelike Poor odds $1.6k 15 devs
  46. Fighting + 4 Player Local Poor odds $1.3k 46 devs
  47. Fighting + Arena Shooter Poor odds $1.1k 14 devs
  48. Fighting + PvE Poor odds $1.0k 39 devs
  49. Fighting + Strategy Poor odds $1.0k 28 devs
  50. Fighting + Party Game Poor odds $898 43 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M Mortal Kombat 11 2019 · $131M FOR HONOR™ 2017 · $98M MORDHAU 2019 · $82M TEKKEN 7 2017 · $82M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Mortal Kombat 11 older $49.99 87,021 88% 2.6M $131M (exactly $130,505,394) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC, Shiver
FOR HONOR™ older $29.99 108,492 69% 3.3M $98M (exactly $97,610,252) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte)
MORDHAU older $29.99 91,678 80% 2.8M $82M (exactly $82,482,697) Triternion
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
TEKKEN 8 older $39.99 46,009 56% 1.4M $55M (exactly $55,196,997) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
MARVEL Tōkon: Fighting Souls $59.99 4,934 48% 148k $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720) ARC SYSTEM WORKS CO., LTD
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
THE KING OF FIGHTERS XV $29.99 8,399 83% 252k $7.6M (exactly $7,556,580) SNK CORPORATION
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.