Should I ship an Experimental game?
Experimental
Of 226 developers who shipped an Experimental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 348 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×412 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 348 games are announced against 133 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,648) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $12,690) |
| Top 5% | $196k (exactly $195,693) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 226 |
| Released games | 1,509 |
| Announced | 348 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Experimental
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 60,334 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 124 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 348 games are announced against 133 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
All pairs with Experimental
No pair with Experimental has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Inscryption 2021 · $81M 
BONELAB 2022 · $22M 
Tiny Glade 2024 · $10M 
Buckshot Roulette 2024 · $9.9M 
Viewfinder 2023 · $8.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Inscryption | older | $19.99 | 135,017 96% | 4.1M | $81M (exactly $80,969,695) | Daniel Mullins Games |
| | BONELAB | older | $39.99 | 18,670 82% | 560k | $22M (exactly $22,398,399) | Stress Level Zero |
| | Tiny Glade | $14.99 | 22,642 97% | 679k | $10M (exactly $10,182,107) | Pounce Light | |
| | Buckshot Roulette | older | $2.99 | 110,042 95% | 3.3M | $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) | Mike Klubnika |
| | Viewfinder | older | $24.99 | 11,901 94% | 357k | $8.9M (exactly $8,922,180) | Sad Owl Studios |
 | Gorogoa | older | $14.99 | 19,172 97% | 575k | $8.6M (exactly $8,621,648) | Buried Signal |
 | Wobbledogs | older | $19.99 | 13,770 98% | 413k | $8.3M (exactly $8,257,869) | Animal Uprising |
 | SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE | older | $24.99 | 9,247 85% | 277k | $6.9M (exactly $6,932,476) | SUPERHOT Team |
 | The Beginner's Guide | older | $9.99 | 19,902 88% | 597k | $6.0M (exactly $5,964,629) | Everything Unlimited Ltd. |
 | Trombone Champ | older | $14.99 | 10,327 98% | 310k | $4.6M (exactly $4,644,052) | Holy Wow Studios LLC |
 | Scritchy Scratchy | $6.99 | 15,245 94% | 457k | $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) | Lunch Money Games | |
 | KARMA: The Dark World | $24.99 | 3,963 90% | 119k | $3.0M (exactly $2,971,061) | POLLARD STUDIO LLC | |
 | Lorn's Lure | $14.99 | 2,654 86% | 80k | $1.2M (exactly $1,193,504) | Rubeki Games | |
 | DEAD LETTER DEPT. | $14.99 | 1,777 95% | 53k | $799k (exactly $799,117) | Mike Monroe, Belief Engine | |
 | Tower Wizard | $2.99 | 8,787 96% | 264k | $788k (exactly $788,194) | Barribob | |
 | Proverbs | $8.99 | 1,786 96% | 54k | $482k (exactly $481,684) | Mark Ffrench | |
 | CARIMARA: Beneath the forlorn limbs | $4.99 | 2,752 96% | 83k | $412k (exactly $411,974) | Bastinus Rex | |
 | RUBATO | $19.99 | 441 97% | 13k | $264k (exactly $264,468) | dconn | |
 | TORMENTOR | $29.99 | 287 49% | 8.6k | $258k (exactly $258,214) | Madmind Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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