Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting game?

Crafting

Of 1,972 developers who shipped a Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,634 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×5.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2477 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 4,634 games are announced against 1,228 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 4,634 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,972
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $3.4k → $4.2k → $3.6k → $4.6k → $3.1k → $3.5k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,972
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,471)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,780)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,555,622)
Developers, 2 yr 1,972
Released games 5,285
Announced 4,634
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,997,650 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 955 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,634 games are announced against 1,228 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Crafting

201 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Crafting + Job Simulator Strong odds $15k 62 devs
  2. Sports + Crafting Fair $37k 24 devs
  3. Crafting + Turn-Based Fair $17k 16 devs
  4. Crafting + Idler Fair $1.7k 235 devs
  5. Crafting + Solitaire Fair $809 12 devs
  6. Crafting + Lovecraftian Poor odds $174k 17 devs
  7. MMORPG + Crafting Poor odds $111k 25 devs
  8. Crafting + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $90k 19 devs
  9. Open World Survival Craft + Crafting Poor odds $77k 160 devs
  10. Crafting + Western Poor odds $69k 13 devs
  11. Crafting + Bullet Heaven Poor odds $44k 20 devs
  12. Crafting + Trains Poor odds $39k 17 devs
  13. Co-op + Crafting Poor odds $38k 208 devs
  14. Naval Combat + Crafting Poor odds $38k 11 devs
  15. Online Co-Op + Crafting Poor odds $36k 205 devs
  16. Crafting + Metroidvania Poor odds $34k 10 devs
  17. Crafting + Mechs Poor odds $25k 16 devs
  18. Crafting + Underwater Poor odds $21k 21 devs
  19. Crafting + Naval Poor odds $21k 13 devs
  20. Vehicular Combat + Crafting Poor odds $20k 14 devs
  21. Crafting + Dating Sim Poor odds $19k 34 devs
  22. Flight + Crafting Poor odds $19k 14 devs
  23. Crafting + Sailing Poor odds $17k 26 devs
  24. Driving + Crafting Poor odds $13k 49 devs
  25. Base Building + Crafting Poor odds $12k 511 devs
  26. Open World + Crafting Poor odds $12k 526 devs
  27. Crafting + Snow Poor odds $10k 20 devs
  28. JRPG + Crafting Poor odds $10k 56 devs
  29. Sandbox + Crafting Poor odds $10k 636 devs
  30. Party-Based RPG + Crafting Poor odds $10k 53 devs
  31. Crafting + Life Sim Poor odds $10k 339 devs
  32. Crafting + Pirates Poor odds $10k 17 devs
  33. Character Customization + Crafting Poor odds $10k 292 devs
  34. Crafting + Science Poor odds $10k 47 devs
  35. PvP + Crafting Poor odds $9.5k 102 devs
  36. Crafting + Hack and Slash Poor odds $9.4k 96 devs
  37. Building + Crafting Poor odds $9.3k 688 devs
  38. Racing + Crafting Poor odds $9.3k 23 devs
  39. Automobile Sim + Crafting Poor odds $9.3k 20 devs
  40. Souls-like + Crafting Poor odds $9.3k 35 devs
  41. Crafting + Dogs Poor odds $9.0k 16 devs
  42. Immersive Sim + Crafting Poor odds $8.6k 274 devs
  43. Crafting + Historical Poor odds $8.5k 52 devs
  44. Crafting + Gothic Poor odds $8.5k 18 devs
  45. Colony Sim + Crafting Poor odds $8.4k 101 devs
  46. Crafting + Romance Poor odds $8.4k 37 devs
  47. Crafting + Farming Poor odds $8.4k 58 devs
  48. Crafting + Fishing Poor odds $8.1k 89 devs
  49. Crafting + Alternate History Poor odds $7.9k 22 devs
  50. Crafting + Farming Sim Poor odds $7.8k 234 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Valheim 2026 · $418M Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M Terraria 2011 · $372M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.