Do I ship it?

GamesMoods2.5D

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2.5D game?

2.5D

Of 1,195 developers who shipped a 2.5D game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,504 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×875 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 2,504 games are announced against 700 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 2,504 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2.5D
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,195
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $1.7k → $955 → $1.4k → $959 → $955 → $599 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2.5D: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,195
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,792)
Top 5% $416k (exactly $415,684)
Developers, 2 yr 1,195
Released games 3,817
Announced 2,504
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

2.5D
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 122,468 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 694 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,504 games are announced against 700 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with 2.5D

0 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with 2.5D has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mortal Kombat 11 older $49.99 87,021 88% 2.6M $131M (exactly $130,505,394) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC, Shiver
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
INSIDE older $24.99 69,791 97% 2.1M $52M (exactly $52,322,313) Playdead
Mortal Kombat 1 older $49.99 34,197 74% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,285,241) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
This War of Mine older $19.99 81,804 93% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,057,859) 11 bit studios
Little Nightmares II older $29.99 50,280 92% 1.5M $45M (exactly $45,236,916) Tarsier Studios
Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition older $19.99 62,690 94% 1.9M $38M (exactly $37,595,193) Moon Studios GmbH
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
Little Nightmares older $19.99 52,184 94% 1.6M $31M (exactly $31,294,745) Tarsier Studios
Little Nightmares III $39.99 10,165 46% 305k $12M (exactly $12,194,950) Supermassive Games
MARVEL Tōkon: Fighting Souls $59.99 4,934 48% 148k $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720) ARC SYSTEM WORKS CO., LTD
THE KING OF FIGHTERS XV $29.99 8,399 83% 252k $7.6M (exactly $7,556,580) SNK CORPORATION
DRAGON QUEST III HD-2D Remake $59.99 4,010 75% 120k $7.2M (exactly $7,216,797) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
REPLACED $19.99 9,130 84% 274k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) Sad Cat Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.