Do I ship it?

GamesVisual NovelVisual Novel + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + LGBTQ+

Of 525 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 672 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×50 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×2445 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 672 games are announced against 326 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 49.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 672 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 525
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $11k → $8.8k → $6.6k → $6.7k → $7.9k → $4.4k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 525
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $5.9k (exactly $5,933)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,970)
Top 5% $291k (exactly $290,956)
Developers, 2 yr 525
Released games 2,385
Announced 672
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Adventure, Dating Sim
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 261,094 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $5.9k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 371 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 672 games are announced against 326 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy older $29.99 35,628 97% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,054,512) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action older $14.99 33,838 97% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,216,949) Sukeban Games
Until Then older $19.99 15,721 96% 472k $9.4M (exactly $9,427,884) Polychroma Games
The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles older $39.99 5,113 93% 153k $6.1M (exactly $6,134,066) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Date Everything! $29.99 6,629 93% 199k $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) Sassy Chap Games
The Red Strings Club older $14.99 12,797 93% 384k $5.8M (exactly $5,754,811) Deconstructeam
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES
AI: The Somnium Files older $19.99 8,881 91% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,325,936) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Mixtape $19.99 7,365 87% 221k $4.4M (exactly $4,416,790) Beethoven and Dinosaur
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
Sweet Home $7.99 9,910 94% 297k $2.4M (exactly $2,375,427) 开心茶房
Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis $16.99 3,974 91% 119k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,548) Alliance Arts, WHO YOU
Promise Mascot Agency $24.99 2,569 96% 77k $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) Kaizen Game Works

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.