Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Romance

Of 983 developers who shipped a Romance Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,197 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.4k, ×71 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×3380 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 1,197 games are announced against 573 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 70.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 1,197 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 983
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $11k → $11k → $9.2k → $12k → $8.8k → $5.6k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 983
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Median $8.4k (exactly $8,392)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $48,466)
Top 5% $402k (exactly $402,166)
Developers, 2 yr 983
Released games 3,562
Announced 1,197
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Choices Matter, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 140,734 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $8.4k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 7 in 10 of the 679 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,197 games are announced against 573 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Senren*Banka older $34.99 33,721 98% 1.0M $35M (exactly $35,396,934) YUZUSOFT
STEINS;GATE older $29.99 25,289 97% 759k $23M (exactly $22,752,513) MAGES. Inc.
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Doki Doki Literature Club Plus! older $14.99 30,148 97% 904k $14M (exactly $13,557,556) Team Salvato
ATRI -My Dear Moments- older $20.99 21,411 98% 642k $13M (exactly $13,482,507) Frontwing, 枕
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
CLANNAD older $44.99 9,908 98% 297k $13M (exactly $13,372,828) VisualArts/Key
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Date Everything! $29.99 6,629 93% 199k $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) Sassy Chap Games
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
FEMBOY FUTA HOUSE $14.99 4,131 89% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,711) IT'S A TRAP
Summer Pockets REFLECTION BLUE $49.99 1,231 91% 37k $1.8M (exactly $1,846,131) VISUAL ARTS/Key

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.